MSU basketball vs. Rutgers prediction, preview, TV, betting line

March 4, 2026, 3:01 p.m. ET

• What: Michigan State vs. Rutgers

• When: 8 p.m. Thursday

• Where: Breslin Center

• TV/Radio: FS1/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 81 (MSU broadcast), 382 (Rutgers broadcast)

• Records/Rankings: MSU is 24-5 overall,14-4 in the Big Ten, and ranked No. 8 in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches polls. The Spartans are No. 11 in the NET rankings and No. 8 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Rutgers is 12-17 overall, 5-13 in the Big Ten, and unranked in both major polls, while being No. 158 in the NET rankings and No. 146 by Kenpom.

• Betting line: MSU -19.5

• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 761-307 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Rutgers — Steve Pikiell is 356-241 in his 22nd season as a head coach, including 159-157 in 10 seasons with the Scarlet Knights.

• Series: MSU leads 15-3 all-time and won the first meeting this season, 88-79 in overtime in Piscataway, New Jersey.

Projected lineups

MSU

C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.3

PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.4

SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.4

SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 6.0

PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 15.1

Rutgers

C (21) Emmanuel Ogbole (6-10) 4.0

F (5) Darren Buchanan (6-7) 8.4

G (3) Kaden Powers (6-3) 6.6

G (2) Lino Mark (6-2) 4.8

PG (0) Tariq Francis (6-1) 16.6

• MSU update: The Breslin Center crowd will say goodbye to five seniors, including mainstays Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper. Kohler and Cooper are unicorns in today’s college basketball — four-year players who persevered, developed and became integral parts of a top-tier program. They are two of only 22 high-major scholarship seniors who’ve been with the same program their entire careers, according to data compiled by 247Sports reporter Jim Trotter. Kohler and Cooper will kiss the Spartan logo at game’s end, along with one-year players Denham Wojcik and Trey Fort and four-year scout-teamer and fan favorite Nick Sanders. Here’s guessing Steve Pikiell’s Rutgers team doesn’t run the same mid-court interference that Michigan did last season.

The Spartans are in a good place right now, coming off road wins at Indiana and Purdue, MSU has won four straight games since its blowout loss to the Badgers. Those wins, especially the win at Purdue, have propelled the Spartans up at least a seed line, and maybe two, by most NCAA tournament projections. If the season ended today, MSU would be the last 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, per the average of all the bracket projections at Bracketmatrix.com. Losses by Purdue, Nebraska, Gonzaga and Kansas have helped the Spartans’ move up. MSU is most likely to be the 3 seed at the Big Ten tournament, as long as the Spartans beat Rutgers. They could also wind up as the 2 seed, with a win at Michigan or a Nebraska home loss to Iowa on Sunday.

MORE: Couch: Kur Teng was everything he wanted to be for Michigan State this season Sunday at Indiana

• Rutgers update: The Scarlet Knights are coming off a 69-65 win at Maryland on Sunday, during which they blew a 19-point lead before hanging on for their fifth Big Ten win of the season. Their best result, however, continues to be their near-upset of MSU on Jan. 27, a game Rutgers led throughout, before losing in overtime. The Scarlet Knights are most likely going to be the No. 14 seed in the Big Ten tournament. If they can hold their spot — which means not getting jumped by 5-13 Northwestern, against whom they own the head-to-head tiebreaker — they’ll get a bye to Wednesday in the Big Ten tournament. Unlike last season, all 18 teams are in the Big Ten tournament, with seeds 15 through 18 beginning play on Tuesday.

• Matchup analysis: In the first meeting between these two teams, Rutgers led by 12 points midway through the second half and outplayed the Spartans until the final few minutes. It was an impressive performance, one that’ll probably hurt them Thursday night, because there is no way MSU takes the Scarlet Knights lightly after that first matchup. On the other hand, Rutgers will know it can play with MSU.

Tariq Francis, who had 23 points in that earlier game, is no longer a super-sub. He’s starting and still leading the way. Rutgers hit 10 3s against MSU last time and, for much of the game, made tough jump shots at a percentage well beyond what the Scarlet Knights have most of the season. This Rutgers team has capable 3-point shooters, but none of any volume above 35%. They do have a toughness about them at times and, defensively, never let MSU get going until late in the meeting in Piscataway. Jeremy Fears Jr. had to rescue the Spartans with 27 of his 29 points in the second half and overtime. Rutgers does very little above average — they’re Nos. 156 and 155 nationally in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively — and are among the worst shooting teams in college basketball and worst defenses guarding the 3-point line.

• Prediction: Senior nights are rarely normal games. Sometimes players are almost exhausted by the emotion. More often at MSU, the Spartans get rolling. I think Rutgers is in trouble here. MSU is brimming with confidence, well aware of the problems the Scarlet Knights caused them last time, and the crowd should be jumping, even with the 8 p.m. Thursday night start.

Source link