INDIAN WELLS — In tennis, the math is unforgiving. With only one exception, every player leaves the tournament with a loss — and yet every match offers another opportunity to make a splash and create real momentum.
The 16 players in Monday’s eight third-round matches from the bottom half of the BNP Paribas Open draw would be thrilled to do just that — to recapture some of the glory they’ve enjoyed in the past.
Madison Keys and Jelena Ostapenko would both love to find that major level once again.
Belinda Bencic, who returned from maternity leave last year, is hoping to put together another run like the one that took the singles gold medal five years ago in Tokyo. Elina Svitolina, another returning mother, won five WTA 1000s in 2017 and 2018 — and dreams of a reunion with the trophy at these elite events.
Maria Sakkari finished in the Top 10 for three years in a row, but after sliding outside the Top 50 last year, she seems poised for a comeback. Even Sakkari’s opponent, Iga Swiatek, would be thrilled to relive the past and win her third title here in five years.
Here’s a look at a handful of the high-impact, high-quality WTA Tour Driven by Mercedes-Benz contests on offer:
Match of the day
No. 2 seed Swiatek is 2-0 against No. 32 Sakkari at Indian Wells, but last month Sakkari beat her in a three-set quarterfinal in Doha.
“It was, for me, quite obvious why I lost, and immediately when I went off the court — I knew what to improve,” Swiatek said after winning her opening match in straight sets over qualifier Kayla Day. “Like technical-wise, I didn’t really prepare for some of the shots as I should.
“When we got back home, I really practiced hard. I played many longer rallies to not lose patience in the middle of it and really be able to grind, because against Maria, you need to be ready for a physical match.”
Sakkari, meanwhile, was a 7-5, 6-0 winner over wildcard Lilli Tagger.
“She will for sure come with something different,” Sakkari said of Swiatek, “because that was the last match she played before this tournament and the level was very high. It’s going to be interesting, because I don’t know what she’s going to try and do, but I know what I’m going to do.
“I’ve already started thinking about it. She’s the No. 2 player in the world. Of course, she’s going to feel the pressure of trying to do something different, but I’m going to try to keep the level that I had in Doha. That’s going to be my challenge.”
Keys, Ostapenko eye a sequel
They have each reached the pinnacle on a single, exhilarating occasion. Ostapenko (2017 Roland Garros) and Keys (2025 Australian Open) know the ultimate thrill of victory. The second Grand Slam singles title, to this point, however, has been elusive. A win in Indian Wells would set them up nicely for the season’s three remaining majors.
Keys, seeded No. 15 here, takes on Sonay Kartal, who took out No. 20 seed Emma Navarro in a third-set tiebreak. Keys had a fairly easy 6-4, 6-3 time with Diane Parry, who had beaten wild card Venus Williams.
No. 26 Ostapenko gets recent Dubai champion and No. 5 seed Jessica Pegula, who needed three sets to get past Donna Vekic. Ostapenko beat Katie Volynets 6-4, 7-6 (5). Pegula is looking for her seventh straight win, but Ostapenko has won four of her past five matches against Top 5 players, and no one has hit more than her 214 winners in WTA 1000s this year.
Maternity in motion
No. 12 Belinda Bencic meets No. 22 Elise Mertens in a replay of their recent match at the United Cup in Australia. Bencic won a three-setter for Switzerland over Belgium’s Mertens.
In her first match here, Bencic took care of qualifier Storm Hunter in straight sets, while Mertens was a 6-2, 6-1 winner over last week’s Merida champion, Cristina Bucsa.
No. 9 Elina Svitolina takes on Ashlyn Krueger, who at 21 is a decade younger. Svitolina defeated Laura Siegemund 7-6 (5), 4-6, 6-3, while Krueger knocked out No. 19 seed Liudmila Samsonova 3-6, 7-5, 6-2. Svitolina won the only previous meeting against Krueger — right here at Indian Wells one year ago.
Svitolina is already 9-0 against opponents ranked outside WTA’s Top 50 during 2026. Krueger is at No. 82.
Service with a smile
When No. 3 Elena Rybakina faces No. 28 Marta Kostyuk, there will be a quirky ultra-clutch statistic in play. Kostyuk has saved a remarkable 69.2 percent of the break points she’s faced — the best of any woman so far this year. Rybakina, at 68.6 percent, is second.
Who will defend her serve better? Kostyuk won their first encounter three years ago in Adelaide, but Rybakina is 3-0 since — all in straight sets.
Rybakina saved three set points in winning a three-set match over Hailey Baptiste, while Kostyuk was a 6-3, 6-2 winner over qualifier Taylor Townsend. Kostyuk is going for her fourth Top 10 win of the season, which would be only one short of her career best.
First-time meetings
Katerina Siniakova is a stellar doubles player — currently ranked No. 3 — but the 29-year-old from Czechia is also formidable in singles. Siniakova defeated No. 27 seed Leylah Fernandez 5-7, 6-4, 7-6 (1) to advance to her first-career meeting with No. 8 Mirra Andreeva.
Ruzic seeks a double-triple
Big props to Antonia Ruzic, who was fearless in a 6-4, 7-5 second-round win over No. 24 Zheng Qinwen, still mounting a comeback from last year’s elbow surgery. The 23-year-old Croatian lost five straight matches before winning three in Dubai as a lucky loser, one of them over Elena Rybakina. Now she’s looking for another triple.
No. 13 Karolina Muchova, the champion last month in Doha, is healthy and in good form. Muchova saved four set points in a 7-5, 6-2 win over Anna Bondar. These two have only met once before, with Muchova winning by a 7-5, 7-5 score last year in Montreal.